Time has passed, so I've got a load more data on the ketotis-vs-weight correlation.
In the graph below my ketosis goes on and off. The change in weight clearly correlated with ketosis, with a little lag in ketosis since it takes a couple of days of no-carb before the ketosis becomes visible on ketostix.
There's a four day gap where I was traveling and had access to neither scales nor ketostix. Thanksgiving, illness and slacking off the diet are all in there to mess up my diet plans.
Another interesting thing is that my weight almost never changes slowly. When it's moving it's moving at about 1 pound per day. So much for healthy 'gradual' weight loss.
The ketosis vertical axis represents the 6 stages on a ketostix
0 = none
1 = trace
2 = small
3 = moderate
4 = large
5 = extra large